Malaysia Airlines Plane Shot Down, Ukrainian Officials Say; 295 Killed
However, trying to make sense of the disaster, reporters are putting to experts on aviation and ground-to-air weapons a number of alternative scenarios. Here are the options that are being explored:
To shoot down a commercial airliner at cruising altitude would require advanced anti-air missile systems.
Among the easiest systems to employ would be man-portable air-defence systems, known as MANPADS. But some experts ruled out that possibility.
"First off, a MANPAD did not shoot down that airliner," a former Marine Special Operations member trained in air defence systems said. "A MANPADS original purpose is for low-flying aircraft with high-heat signatures."
"Like helicopters," he added.
MANPADS have been known to target commercial aircraft - but usually only during takeoff and landing, when the jets are moving the slowest and are the most vulnerable. A DHL transport plane was struck by an SA-14, a type of MANPAD, shortly after departing Baghdad international airport in 2003.
"MANPADS don't have the fuel to continue tracking a fast moving target at high altitude," said the special operations member, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
Pro-Russian separatists have denied allegations that they brought down the aircraft, saying they lack weapons systems that would be able to target an airliner at a cruising altitude near 30,000 ft.
At the same time, rebels in eastern Ukraine claimed that they had shot down a Ukrainian transport plane earlier this week. That plane, an IL-76, was shot down at 21,000 ft, according to US officials. Three crew members were killed.
Both Russia and Ukraine have moved advanced air defence systems near their borders in recent months, including the SA-17 Buk 2. The SA-17, known to NATO countries as the "Grizzly," is an advanced iteration of the SA-11 "Gadfly" and is fielded by a number of countries.
The SA-17 is a surface-to-air missile system that can be fired from either a wheeled or a tracked chassis and can engage aircraft at anywhere from altitudes of roughly 32 feet to 78,000 feet, putting flight MH17 easily within range.
The SA-17 guides its missiles via a radar array, unlike MANPADS, which mostly use a heat signature for guidance.
Flight MH17 was a Boeing 777-200, with a wingspan of 199 feet, while the Il-76, the aircraft shot down on Monday in eastern Ukraine, has a wingspan of 165 feet.
"To a radar operator, the two aircraft might look similar," said Navy Pilot Lieutenant James Swiggart, who has flown early-warning aircraft.
However, Swiggart explained, advanced surface-to-air systems like the SA-17 are transponder aware, meaning they can detect if they are targeting an airliner.
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Civilian airlines are constantly broadcasting a four-digit transponder, known as an IFF code, that designates aircraft as civilian. The code would be detected by the SA-17 if the weapons system attempted to lock on or "paint" MH17.
"It's easy to tell the difference between a civilian aircraft or not, if you're a skilled radar operator," Swiggart said. "There's really no excuse to shoot down an airliner unless you were trying to."
Swiggart added that airliners fly well-established routes at regulated speeds. And while military aircraft have an advanced warning system in case they are being targeted by anti-aircraft missiles, civilian aircraft have no such device.
"They would have had no idea," Swiggart said.
- The Washington Post
1. Kiev forces shot down the plane on purpose. Highly unlikely and the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko has firmly placed the blame on the separatist rebels who hold the part of eastern Ukraine where the plane was downed.
The war is slowly turning in favor of the Kiev government forces, so it would be rash to invite international condemnation for such a blatant act of unnecessary aggression against a civilian airliner of a third-party country.
2. Kiev forces shot down the plane by accident. Possible but still unlikely as the Kiev forces are well trained and disciplined and are under clear instructions to do nothing that might provoke the wrath of the U.S. and E.U.
3. Pro-Russian separatists shot down the plane on purpose. Possible as they have shot down a number of Kiev forces military aircraft before, though those planes and helicopters were flying far lower than flight MH17.
However, the separatist rebels may have been trying out a weapon, though they deny their Russian provided weapons are capable of reaching airline routes. But as the rebels are the least disciplined of the forces under scrutiny, this may ultimately prove to be the true explanation.
Confident that the crash was “a terrorist act” by Ukrainian separatists, Poroshenko has invited Dutch investigators to determine exactly what happened. Separatist forces on the scene have taken control of the black box recorder that will hold the key to what happened.
Shortly after the plane hit the ground, Igor Girkin, a separatist took to the VKontakte social network with: “We just downed an An-26 near Torez. It's down somewhere near Progress mine.” That may have been merely an empty boast. Not long after, the post was removed.
4. Pro-Russian separatists shot down the plane by accident. Possible. Though as they hotly deny responsibility for the crash and insist they do not have the weapons to pull off such a trick, only a full investigation will reveal who fired the missile, if indeed MH17 was shot down.
5) Russian military missiles shot down the plane on purpose. Highly unlikely. Having suffered renewed and painful U.S. and E.U. sanctions this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin does not want to escalate tensions in the Ukraine further. On the contrary, everything he has been doing and saying lately has suggested he wishes to play down Russian involvement in the Ukraine conflict. Putin will know from his military’s satellite pictures whether the plane was shot down or crashed.
6. Russian military missiles shot down the plane by accident. Again, highly unlikely. No one in the Russian military dare make a move unless it has been given the OK from the Kremlin. Putin has ruled out direct military involvement not least because he has been getting his own way in Ukraine by stealth.
7. It was an accident caused by mechanical or pilot failure. Always possible, but unlikely. The Boeing 777 like the one that crashed is one of the safest airliners flying today.
8. MH17 was brought down by an act of terrorism, either by a terrorist on board or by the planting of a bomb. Unlikely. Usually acts of terrorism are claimed by the terrorist organization responsible without delay, and no one has yet claimed responsibility.
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